What restrictions will be in place from Sunday in the Canary Islands?

Tomorrow, Thursday, the Government is scheduled to have a meeting with Public Health and Scientific Committee advisors to review data for the islands and reassess restrictions to be implemented from Sunday when the ‘Christmas restrictions’ come to an end. So, will curfew end will gyms allowed to re-open, and will bars and restaurants be permitted to open interiors?

It has already been indicated that the ‘traffic light’ system will be reinstated with any extra restrictions deemed necessary as before, depending on the epidemiological situation in each of the islands. Currently Tenerife is under a red traffic light until Sunday, La Gomera is amber until tomorrow, and the rest of the islands are green.

Over the last few days, the incidence rates for Tenerife have reduced, with the IA7 now at 84.00 and IA14 at 177.05, and El Hierro is now the highest in the Canary Islands with an IA7 of 209.70 and Lanzarote is experiencing a rebound of cases and has gone up to 84.71.

Of course there are other indicators to take into account, but incidence rates are the main ones along with the number of municipalities that qualify for a red traffic light. Currently the municipalities in the islands are as follows:
Tenerife: 4 red; 22 amber; 5 green.
Gran Canaria: 1 red; 11 amber; 9 green.
Lanzarote: 1 red; 4 amber; 2 green.
Fuerteventura: 3 red; 2 amber; 1 green.
La Palma: 2 red; 6 amber; 6 green.
La Gomera: 1 red; 1 amber; 4 green.
El Hierro: 2 red; 1 amber; 0 green.

Also, if an island has a municipality with an IA7 over 100 it is an indicator for a red traffic light. Currently there are 8 municipalities in the islands that fall into this category, as follows:
Arrecife (Lanzarote): 184.16
Breña Alta (La Palma): 180.46
Granadilla de Abona (Tenerife): 109.68
La Laguna (Tenerife): 123.81
Santa Cruz (Tenerife): 184.75
Las Palmas (Gran Canaria): 122.92
San Sebastián (La Gomera): 131.97
Valverde (El Hierro): 399.60

From this it easy to see that five of the seven main Canary Islands have one municipality, and Tenerife has three, with an incidence rate over 100.
The other main consideration is the pressure on the health system, which is probably the main factor taken into account, especially at the moment as countries are expecting a surge of positives following Christmas and New Year.

There are currently 356 people hospitalised in the Canary Islands due to Covid-19, which may not sound a lot, but 75% of the patients are in Tenerife, and 24% are in Gran Canaria, with only 1% across the other five islands. The main question for the hospitals in Tenerife and Gran Canaria, is when the number of Covid patients is combined with the number of ‘regular’ patients, will they be able to cope if there is an up surge in numbers?

It is precisely this reason that countries like the UK are being cautious and have gone in to lockdown to prevent the spread and put pressure on the NHS. Here, there are only two hospitals currently at an amber or red status due to capacity, and they are the Hospital Nuestra Señora del Perpetuo Socorro and the Hospitalario Universitario de Gran Canaria Dr. Negrín in Gran Canaria.

Tenerife hospitals are running at an average of 70% capacity across the island, so do have space, but only if the curve bends and cases reduce. If there is a spike in Tenerife, then that pressure will be on the hospitals.

So from this what traffic lights will be implemented for 14 days from Sunday, and will any extra restrictions be put in place? It is anticipated that Tenerife, El Hierro and Lanzarote will be red, La Gomera and Gran Canaria could go to amber, and Fuerteventura will stay green. La Palma is a difficult one. Data suggests that the island will stay green, but if tests show that the so-called ‘UK strain’ is on the island, they could quite easily be red as well.

What we will be waiting to find out, is if the current ‘extra’ restrictions are extended along with that, or if they will be relaxed and follow the standard traffic light guidelines. Common sense says that they will be extended in Tenerife until there is a definitive down turn in the number of new cases and incidence rates, and that some will be implemented in other islands accordingly.

Right now, with zero tourism in the islands, the UK on lockdown, travel restrictions across Germany, and the vaccination campaign under way, it all points to some sort of extras over and above the standard red traffic light regulations.

As a reminder, under standard red traffic light restrictions meetings of up to 10 people are allowed, hospitality venues including bars and restaurants can use interiors and stay open until midnight, without any new customers after 11pm, no curfew is in place, and standard social distancing and health measures apply.