Incidence rate update: Breakdown of rates by island, and between cities and tourist resorts
On Friday Germany decided to delay taking the Canary Islands off their black list of places to travel to, and said they will look at it again in a weeks’ time. At the same time, the Ministry of Health announced that Tenerife is keeping the red traffic light restrictions for another seven days, and the ECDC produced the first EU colour coded travel map with the archipelago in Red.
So if the figures in the Canary Islands are evolving so well, why has this happened? Answer... Tenerife.
Up until now the main ‘hot spot’ for new coronavirus cases in the Canaries has been Gran Canaria, where the second wave came like a tsunami and triggered the closure of nightlife venues, and extra restrictions, which Lanzarote a had to undergo too. Fortunately these restrictions worked and the numbers of cases and incidence rates have dropped in those locations, ‘bending the curve’.
From this, all the islands have had a red traffic light at some point, but as of now Tenerife is the only island that maintains it as the number of cases is still on the increase, all be it not in the same way as Gran Canaria was, but more as a precaution as the Ministry of Health say it is under control.
So, what are the 7-day incidence rates (IA7) for the islands individually, and as a whole as of today (17.10.2020):
El Hierro: 36.47
Gran Canaria: 26.43
La Palma: 4.84
La Gomera: 4.65
Canary Islands total: 35.85
If you go one step further and look at the situation by municipality, as expected the capital cities of each island have the highest incidence rates, followed by the most populated towns, such as:
Santa Cruz (Tenerife): IA7 is 101.30; IA14 is 175.58
La Laguna (Tenerife): IA7 is 95.24; IA14 is 205.08
Tacaronte (Tenerife): IA7 is 45.58; IA14 is 140.88
Las Palmas (Gran Canaria): IA7 is 52.38; IA14 is 126.60
But, looking at the main tourist areas of the islands, it is a different story:
Costa Adeje (incl Las Americas): IA7 is 14.62; IA14 is 22.98
Arona (incl Los Cristianos): IA7 is 9.85; IA14 is 24.63
Granadilla (incl. El Medano): IA7 is 17.95; IA14 is 41.88
San Miguel (incl. Golf Del Sur): IA7 is 4.79; IA14 is 14.36
Santiago de Teide (incl Los Gigantes): IA7 is 18.00; IA14 is 63.00
Mogan (incl. Puerto Rico): IA7 is 4.98; IA14 is 14.95
San Bartolomé de Tirajana (incl. Playa del Ingles): IA7 is 7.48; IA14 is 44.91
Teguise (incl. Costa Teguise): IA7 is 8.95; IA14 is 8.95
Tias (incl. Puerto del Carmen): IA7 is 0; IA14 is 0
Yaiza (incl. Playa Blanca): IA7 is 0; IA14 is 0
Antigua: (incl. Caleta de Fuste): IA7 is 0; IA14 is 0
La Oliva (incl Corralejo): IA7 is 7.52; IA14 is 26.34
From this, and other data regarding the number of hospitalisations, rate of positives on PCR testing, and the increased number of medical discharges, which are all very favourable, it is easy to see that when Tenerife’s data starts to decrease the Canary Islands will be in a strong position to get the incidence rate down to 25 for Scandinavian countries, and even 20 for the UK, so that there is no excuse but to let tourists back into the islands without quarantine on return.
Let’s see how the data evolves over the next week with the red traffic light still in place.